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pi-ratings (Home). Updated on 26/01/2017
RankTeampi-rating
1Tottenham1.31
2Chelsea1.23
3Arsenal1.21
4Liverpool1.13
5Man City1.10
6Man United1.00
7Everton0.78
8Southampton0.77
9West Ham0.61
10Leicester0.48
11Stoke0.39
12West Brom0.36
13Middlesbrough0.11
14Swansea0.06
15Sunderland0.00
16Burnley0.00
17Crystal Palace-0.03
18Bournemouth-0.05
19Watford-0.13
20Hull-0.37
  

pi-ratings (Away). Updated on 26/01/2017
RankTeampi-rating
1Tottenham0.98
2Chelsea0.98
3Arsenal0.98
4Man City0.79
5Liverpool0.78
6Man United0.70
7Everton0.45
8Southampton0.39
9Leicester0.36
10West Brom0.26
11West Ham0.24
12Stoke0.17
13Swansea0.00
14Crystal Palace-0.02
15Bournemouth-0.06
16Burnley-0.11
17Middlesbrough-0.12
18Sunderland-0.23
19Watford-0.24
20Hull-0.43
  



Welcome to pi-football.com; a website that provides free English Premier League (EPL) match predictions in the form of {p(H), p(D), p(A)}, corresponding to 'home win', 'draw', and 'away win', since EPL season beginning August 2010.

The predictions published are now based on the pi-rating technique (see DOI, draft).  The pi-rating technique was developed in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Ph.D project entitled "Bayesian Networks for Prediction, Risk Assessment, and Decision Making in an Inefficient Association Football Gambling Market". The predictions generated during the EPL seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12 are based on the pi-football models, which are more sophisticated predictive models in comparison to the pi-rating technique, and which also served towards the completion of that Ph.D. You will find the pi-football predictions in 'Historical Predictions'. The list with the relevant publications (including DOIs and drafts available for download) can be found here.

 

Latest Predictions*
DateHome TeamAway Teamp(H)%p(D)%p(A)%Odds(H)Odds(D)Odds(A)
25/02/2017ChelseaSwansea0.720.180.111.45.69.43
25/02/2017Crystal PalaceMiddlesbrough0.390.270.352.593.722.9
25/02/2017EvertonSunderland0.60.230.181.674.425.7
25/02/2017HullBurnley0.330.270.43.013.752.49
25/02/2017West BromBournemouth0.470.260.272.143.853.66
25/02/2017WatfordWest Ham0.380.270.352.613.722.87
26/02/2017TottenhamStoke0.710.180.111.45.569.24
27/02/2017LeicesterLiverpool0.460.260.282.163.843.62
        

 

The graph on the left demonstrates the expected cumulative points for Chelsea, during the English Premier League Season 2011/12, as generated by the pi-football model v2.48, and against published market odds. The results show that the market failed to adapt quckly to new evidence in relation to the pi-football model.  

The graph below illustrates how the pi-ratings develop for Manchester City over the course of more than 20 EPL Seasons (up to match instances occurred on 28/10/2012). In particular, the graph illustrates how Manchester City's match performances steadily increased since 2008 (starting approximately at match instance 6500), but also how the team was able to further improve drastically at the start of the EPL season 2011/12 (starting approximately at match instance 7300).


 


 

pi-ratings (Overall). Updated on 26/01/2017
RankTeampi-rating
1Tottenham1.15
2Chelsea1.10
3Arsenal1.10
4Liverpool0.96
5Man City0.95
6Man United0.85
7Everton0.62
8Southampton0.58
9West Ham0.42
10Leicester0.42
11West Brom0.31
12Stoke0.28
13Swansea0.03
14Middlesbrough-0.01
15Crystal Palace-0.03
16Bournemouth-0.06
17Burnley-0.06
18Sunderland-0.11
19Watford-0.19
20Hull-0.40
  









Probability and Risk:  A blog by Prof. Norman Fenton

   
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